This cannot go on much longer.

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Re: This cannot go on much longer.

Postby smg58 » Thu Feb 08, 2018 7:01 am

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Sergio Romo finished up really well with the Rays last year after looking done with the Dodgers. At a low price, he's well worth checking into.

I said in November that if Lance Lynn regains more of his old stuff the second year after TJS, he could provide comparable value to Arrietta and Darvish at half the price. I still think that's true. It's still a big if, but if you think Darvish has to learn to pitch with more guile after this past season, well, Lynn has already done that.

Re: This cannot go on much longer.

Postby Zvon » Thu Feb 08, 2018 7:10 am

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smg58 wrote:Sergio Romo finished up really well with the Rays last year after looking done with the Dodgers. At a low price, he's well worth checking into.


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Re: This cannot go on much longer.

Postby Edgy MD » Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:16 am

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LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote:
Edgy MD wrote:I'm thinking about some Jon Jay.


Wait. You're concerned about taking away ABs from Nimmo... and you want to ADD another middling OF?

Well, he would be outfielder number five, a role currently being squatted by nobody. Strictly pinch-hitting, double switching, and waiting for an injury. If by some chance everybody's healthy when Conforto returns, he can go back to the Continental Congress.
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Re: This cannot go on much longer.

Postby Centerfield » Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:34 am

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There are so many "take a flyer on" guys out there if you had the roster space.

Huston Street could be a great addition if he's back to being healthy. Might be a good idea to wrap up Trevor Rosenthal on a two year deal on the cheap. Both CarGo's might have something left. Colby Rasmus seems to have cured himself of the suckitude he caught in Houston.

There's hidden gold on that list somewhere. The right set of eyes will find it.

LWFS, I don't see the draw of Cashner, though admittedly I'm only looking at his stats. I think he was part of a game a few years ago where (I think Syndergaard?) where they set some record for tons of strikeouts but not surviving the 4th inning or something like that. He had a 1.32 WHIP, which is not only not that good, but was his best since 2014. I'd be interested to know what makes him attractive.

Re: This cannot go on much longer.

Postby LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr » Thu Feb 08, 2018 3:39 pm

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Used to be a nasty fastball-slider-change K guy... but seems to have reinvented himself as a sinker-reliant, worm-killer type, to xFIP-belying positive effect (.266 BABIP last year); a mid-to-high 3-ERA could actually be sustainable, even with that WHIP/decreased strikeout rate. Might work very nicely as a change-of-pace back-end starter, especially given our presumed infield defensive upgrades.
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Re: This cannot go on much longer.

Postby Ashie62 » Thu Feb 08, 2018 5:39 pm

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Anyone attending Tim Lincecum's workout today?

Word is the freak may be freaky again.

Re: This cannot go on much longer.

Postby Zvon » Thu Feb 08, 2018 6:04 pm

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Centerfield wrote:
There's hidden gold on that list somewhere. The right set of eyes will find it.



What a great line.
Every man in America is an authority on baseball.If you don’t believe that, just ask one.Regrettably, most of the knowledge they have was accumulated by about age 12.Much of it is correct;a lot of it is not.~Bill Shannon

Re: This cannot go on much longer.

Postby MFS62 » Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:59 pm

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Talking about the Mets budget (well, even if you weren't. This is the current number):
Mets RHP Zack Wheeler has won his arbitration case against the team, reports Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.

Wheeler will earn $1.9 million this coming season. The Mets had filed at $1.5 million. With Wheeler's contract figured in, the Mets' payroll is currently at $146.37 million, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts.

Is there room for another pitcher? Only Sandy knows the Wilpons know.

Later
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Re: This cannot go on much longer.

Postby Zvon » Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:55 pm

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MFS62 wrote:
Is there room for another pitcher? Only Sandy knows the Wilpons know.

Later


I love mysteries. From now on that's what I'll be calling our owners. I'm always calling them cheap or broke or dickheads or whatever...
From now on, they will be deemed: Mysterious. Our mysterious owners.
Hey, that's up a few notches, in my book.
Every man in America is an authority on baseball.If you don’t believe that, just ask one.Regrettably, most of the knowledge they have was accumulated by about age 12.Much of it is correct;a lot of it is not.~Bill Shannon

Re: This cannot go on much longer.

Postby A Boy Named Seo » Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:35 am

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So with pitchers and catchers having reported (and some position guys, unofficially), we've got the 80+ unsigned guys maybe going the 'unsigned guy
spring camp coached by Bo Porter? I wonder how many dudes are gonna show up? I read Duda was hanging around Mets camp (but not working out with the Mets). Like, are we gonna see JD Martinez, Hosmer, and Arrieta and all the other big name dudes working out together?

Maybe in 2018, waiting until spring starts to sign your guy might be the market inefficiency and a way to save buxxx, but if you miss this late in the game, you might be screwed. This is getting more interesting by the day.
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Re: This cannot go on much longer.

Postby Edgy MD » Tue Feb 13, 2018 12:14 pm

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Unsigned Player Camp is something I conceptualized years ago, but let DIE like all my other fabulous wealth-enhancing careers.

  1. Get a lease on the cheap for some classic-but-abandoned facility (Dodgertown in Vero Beach? Crescent Lake Park in St. Pete?),

  2. invite the 100 to 150 most experienced unsigned guys still looking for work,

  3. monetize it by charging the players a modest-but-not-insubstantial-fee, possibly to be paid if and when they sign,

  4. get some money as well from MLB,

  5. staff it with out-of-work coaches and trainers (everybody needs to showcase their work),

  6. cultivate a cheesey-but-perverse touristy atmosphere around the facility, with low-end carnival attractions, like haunted houses and costumed characters, that the players find initially charming but ultimately bush league, motivating them to play hard and sign with the first team that comes calling,

  7. divide the players into four squads that scrimmage against one another or go out and battle against the MLB teams that aren't signing them,

  8. I forget what eight was for,

  9. broadcast the games (to who, I dunno, but it's 2018 and somebody is watching everything) with broadcasters and camera crews that are also out of work and looking to showcase their talents,

  10. when some of these players go on to have wonderful careers despite that embarrassing no-contract spring way back when, and they are inducted into the Hall of Fame, and their memorabilia prices shoot through the roof, who will have the rarest pieces of all? I will, because I will have hung onto the Vero Beach Mercenaries jersey he wore for four games way back when. $$KA-CHING$$
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Re: This cannot go on much longer.

Postby Nymr83 » Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:24 pm

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#8 - FREE ADMISSION

You'll make your money on concessions, but fill those stands any way you can and make it look like the fans care. Fans of 29* teams converge, pleading the unsigned to join their favorite squad.

*Marlins fans wont be there, despite the shortest drive they have already become too jaded to think thwir horrible new owner will sign anyone.
Well, I've got nothing against the bunt, in its place. But most of the time that place is the bottom of a long-forgotten closet. -Earl Weaver

Re: This cannot go on much longer.

Postby Vic Sage » Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:41 pm

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i love this idea... particularly the carny atmosphere.
"It's not the answers that matter, it's the questions."

Re: This cannot go on much longer.

Postby Edgy MD » Tue Feb 13, 2018 4:37 pm

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Nymr83 wrote:#8 - FREE ADMISSION

You'll make your money on concessions, but fill those stands any way you can and make it look like the fans care. Fans of 29* teams converge, pleading the unsigned to join their favorite squad.

*Marlins fans wont be there, despite the shortest drive they have already become too jaded to think thwir horrible new owner will sign anyone.

Welcome to my management team. Good thinking.

11: If you cap your invite list at (say) 150, with each camper that gets signed, you invite a new one to take his place. So you retain your 150-man camp roster (and four squadrons) throughout the spring, and can even keep workouts going two months into the season, as saps try and get minor league deals, waiting for that one injury that leads to a phone call.

12: Also, every time a camper gets signed, a bell or a trumpet fanfare resounds around the facility, keeping guys locked in to the goal at a pavlovian level.
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Re: This cannot go on much longer.

Postby Zvon » Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:21 pm

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Edgy MD wrote:[*]cultivate a cheesey-but-perverse touristy atmosphere around the facility, with low-end carnival attractions, like haunted houses and costumed characters, that the players find initially charming but ultimately bush league, motivating them to play hard and sign with the first team that comes calling,

Vic Sage wrote:i love this idea... particularly the carny atmosphere.


Me too. I'd like to be in charge of this aspect.

I'll work for free if there's a little shed down there I can crash in.
Every man in America is an authority on baseball.If you don’t believe that, just ask one.Regrettably, most of the knowledge they have was accumulated by about age 12.Much of it is correct;a lot of it is not.~Bill Shannon

Re: This cannot go on much longer.

Postby Frayed Knot » Fri Feb 16, 2018 3:15 pm

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Manfred doesn't name any names, but ya think he might have had some specific person in mind when he said this at a presser yesterday concerning teh remaining still-unsigned FAs?:

“Drawing lines in the sand based on a perception that your market value is something different than what the market is telling you your value is, that doesn’t make a lot of sense, ... It is a fact that markets dictate value.
Values are not dictated by big, thick, three-ring binders and rhetoric about who’s better than whom. They’re dictated by markets. That’s the system we negotiated.”
Every great cause begins as a movement, becomes a business, and eventually degenerates into a racket.

Re: This cannot go on much longer.

Postby Vic Sage » Fri Feb 16, 2018 4:00 pm

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Frayed Knot wrote:Manfred doesn't name any names, but ya think he might have had some specific person in mind when he said this at a presser yesterday concerning teh remaining still-unsigned FAs?:

“Drawing lines in the sand based on a perception that your market value is something different than what the market is telling you your value is, that doesn’t make a lot of sense, ... It is a fact that markets dictate value.
Values are not dictated by big, thick, three-ring binders and rhetoric about who’s better than whom. They’re dictated by markets. That’s the system we negotiated.”


markets don't dictate value. Even in a market economy, they dictate price. Price is an objective standard, but "value" is a subjective determination. One player might actually be more valuable than another, in terms of winning for example, to one team but not as much to another, and they won't get as great a price because they have value to fewer buyers. e.g., see "Moneyball", and other examples of market inefficiencies. A market may determine that one movie makes a billion dollars and another movie, a better movie of greater value, ends up losing money. Value doesn't necessarily = price, particularly if parties are not equally situated when negotiating price.
"It's not the answers that matter, it's the questions."

Re: This cannot go on much longer.

Postby Lefty Specialist » Sun Feb 18, 2018 8:00 am

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Hosmer to the Padres for 8(!) years, with an opt-out after 5. They already had Wil Myers playing first. Seems like a dumb move. Always thought he'd wind up returning to KC....
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Re: This cannot go on much longer.

Postby Frayed Knot » Sun Feb 18, 2018 8:22 am

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Well, rumor had it he was holding out for an eight year deal and it looks like he found someone willing to go that route.
He's younger than either Pujols & Cano were (28 vs 32 & 31) when they each got ten year deals so this one isn't quite as insane as those.
Of course he's also not the hitter either of them were.


Pujols, 3-season OPS+ leading up to his FA deal: 189, 173, 148 -- very nice numbers even though headed in the wrong direction before the deal ever started
Cano: 133, 148, 147 -- plus he's a middle infielder ... even if only a middling one
Hosmer: 122, 102, 132 -- nice glove (4 GG) but essentially limited to 1B/DH (5 career games/3 starts in the OF)
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Re: This cannot go on much longer.

Postby Centerfield » Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:07 am

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Yeah. This one is a head scratcher. A ton of money to give to a guy, though great last year, has been inconsistent. But more so, Eric Hosmer doesn’t turn the Padres into contenders (or so I read, don’t really know them well). In fact, I hear they are years away. So you wonder how this makes sense.

If he puts you over the top for the next three years, then sure. Big market clubs can afford this. But to take you from 70 to 75 wins?

The timing is weird. By the time SD is done rebuilding you’d think this contract would already be an albatross.

Re: This cannot go on much longer.

Postby 41Forever » Sun Feb 18, 2018 12:54 pm

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http://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2018/02/17/castellanos-players-owners-relationship-turning-uncomfortable/110529882/

Interesting comments from one of the Tigers today.



Lakeland, Fla. — Nick Castellanos is normally a fun-loving guy. It takes a fair bit of antagonizing to set him off. But his blood got up pretty good as he watched his friend, former teammate and unsigned free agent J.D. Martinez get dragged through the mud on a recent talk program on MLB Network.

“They were chastising J.D. and making him look like a criminal (for not accepting a contract offer from the Red Sox),” Castellanos said. “After talking to J.D., the highest offer he got was five years and $100 million.”

Castellanos isn’t saying $20 million a year is chump change. And all things being equal, Martinez himself would probably jump at the chance to secure that kind of financial security for his family. But there is a much bigger issue at stake.

“This is my opinion, OK?” he said. “I didn’t go to college and I am not saying my opinion is fact and I am not saying that anybody who believes something different is wrong. But if I am thinking like an owner, this is the year everybody stands together to try and lower the market.


And


“J.D. has a responsibility to hold his ground, so guys coming behind him can get better contracts, as well,” Castellanos said. “It would be very easy to for J.D. to say, ‘I’ll take $100 million and I will never have to work again ever.’ But it’s not about that. It’s about setting the game up for the people coming behind you.”


He seems to imply that other players are pressuring guys not to take deals, thinking they would hurt the next round of free agents.

Re: This cannot go on much longer.

Postby Edgy MD » Sun Feb 18, 2018 1:42 pm

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That's a good Mike Baxter post.

I wonder, in addition to Martinez potentially holding the line to potentially boost next year's Trout and Harper deals, how many Colby Rasmi are under pressure to hold the line so as not to undercut J.D. Martinez.
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Re: This cannot go on much longer.

Postby MFS62 » Sun Feb 18, 2018 2:44 pm

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41Forever wrote:
He seems to imply that other players are pressuring guys not to take deals, thinking they would hurt the next round of free agents.

And that would be as much of a "conspiracy to set prices" as the players claim the owners are doing. They are working outside of the CBA that was singed by both sides, and isn't that a violation of some labor laws?

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Re: This cannot go on much longer.

Postby Edgy MD » Sun Feb 18, 2018 3:32 pm

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No, acting in concert on the labor side is quite legal.
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Re: This cannot go on much longer.

Postby Frayed Knot » Sun Feb 18, 2018 3:56 pm

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41Forever wrote:[Castellanos] seems to imply that other players are pressuring guys not to take deals, thinking they would hurt the next round of free agents.


Nothing new there.
Tony Gwynn used to get heat from the union for his rather open declarations that he wanted to stay in his home town of SD rather than challenge and possibly raise the market by auctioning himself elsewhere.
According to Bobby V (to some at this site personally) Mo Vaughn had to tell the union to 'get out of my business' when he adjusted his contract to facilitate his trade to the Mets.
And there are other examples. Some guys have followed the advice of their agents (who are under the same sort of pressure) and wound up with a lesser deal than one they earlier rejected.


And while there's nothing specifically wrong with the union wanting to see the pay of their members trending ever upward, not every player or every year is going to do that and you'd hate to think that
Martinez is risking his current (and possibly last) contract because union officials and/or agents are urging him to play chicken with maybe the only team offering him that current deal.
He's free to take that strategy as far as he wants of course, but that doesn't mean he'll necessarily get the result he (or the others) want.
Every great cause begins as a movement, becomes a business, and eventually degenerates into a racket.

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