Jose Reyes six-year prediction poll

Sometimes we all think we're Kreskin. Here's where CPF prognosticators get proven right or wrong.

How many regular-season games will Jose play in from 2012 through 2017?

Poll ended at Thu Mar 15, 2012 10:53 am

0 to 99
0
No votes
100 to 199
0
No votes
200 to 299
0
No votes
300 to 399
0
No votes
400 to 499
1
6%
500 to 599
0
No votes
600 to 699
7
39%
700 to 799
6
33%
800 to 899
4
22%
900 or more
0
No votes
 
Total votes : 18

Jose Reyes six-year prediction poll

Postby Benjamin Grimm » Tue Dec 06, 2011 10:53 am

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I know the odds are against us still remembering the existence of this thread at the end of the 2017 season, but I'll put it out there anyway.

How many regular-season games do you predict Jose Reyes will play during the course of his new six-year contract, from 2012 through 2017?

If he were to play 162 games in each of the six seasons, I'll soak my sneakers in vinegar and then eat them he will have played 972 games.

Re: Jose Reyes six-year prediction poll

Postby metirish » Tue Dec 06, 2011 11:01 am

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600 to 699

Re: Jose Reyes six-year prediction poll

Postby John Cougar Lunchbucket » Tue Dec 06, 2011 11:04 am

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I predict he plays more games for another team or team(s) than he will for the Marlins.
Let me tell you something: I have a big set of balls.

Re: Jose Reyes six-year prediction poll

Postby Nymr83 » Tue Dec 06, 2011 11:05 am

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I took 600-699.

How many does he have to play to make the contract ok? If the Mets had signed this deal and he gave them 4 "full years" (150 games each), 1 year with a significant DL stint (120 games) and 1 lost season (50 games) that about 770 games, and I think you can put that in a range of 750 to 800... 750+ games out of this contract and its a good deal, imo.

I think he falls about a half-season short of that and gives them 675 games. The contract isn't a disaster but it isn't amazing either. If they win 1 championship with his help or make several playoff trips, it'll be worth it.
Well, I've got nothing against the bunt, in its place. But most of the time that place is the bottom of a long-forgotten closet. -Earl Weaver

Re: Jose Reyes six-year prediction poll

Postby Vic Sage » Tue Dec 06, 2011 11:09 am

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i think he probably averages 120 games a year, which puts him at 720.
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Re: Jose Reyes six-year prediction poll

Postby Benjamin Grimm » Tue Dec 06, 2011 11:10 am

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I voted for the 600's, but wouldn't be too surprised if he made it into the 700's. I would be surprised if he hit 800 or more.

Re: Jose Reyes six-year prediction poll

Postby TransMonk » Tue Dec 06, 2011 11:29 am

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600 to 699
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Re: Jose Reyes six-year prediction poll

Postby HahnSolo » Tue Dec 06, 2011 12:37 pm

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I went 700s. Three full seasons would get him to the 470s (486 if he played 162 games in each of those three years). I know three full years is no guarantee, but crazier things have happened.

To hit 700 from there he'd only have to average 80+ games in the other three years.
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Re: Jose Reyes six-year prediction poll

Postby TransMonk » Tue Dec 06, 2011 1:32 pm

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John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote:I predict he plays more games for another team or team(s) than he will for the Marlins.

I won't go this far (at least not over the next 6 years), but I do believe Reyes will be dealt before this contract is up.
I am a patient boy...I wait, I wait, I wait, I wait.

Re: Jose Reyes six-year prediction poll

Postby Frayed Knot » Tue Dec 06, 2011 1:46 pm

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TransMonk wrote:
John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote:I predict he plays more games for another team or team(s) than he will for the Marlins.

I won't go this far (at least not over the next 6 years), but I do believe Reyes will be dealt before this contract is up.


It'll be interesting to see what'll happen with the Marlins - both on the Reyes front and in general.

They've been saddled in a bad stadium in a bad location with an indifferent fan-base in a bad sports city for a number of years now. On the other hand they've also been collecting revenue sharing buck$ by the trainload while not putting any of it into the team and have now been handed a virtually free stadium that will help them at least on the sight-lines, weather & location fronts.

But while an attendance increase is almost assured are they really going to jump from drawing in the hundreds (almost literally on some nights) to 30K+ on a regular basis once the novelty factor wears off? Also, FAs tend to work best on clubs that are using them for the final pieces in their puzzle and not for teams coming off last place finishes. All this sudden spending - for Reyes + Bell + who knows where it stops - and particularly the timing of the spending could look really bad in a couple of years.
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Re: Jose Reyes six-year prediction poll

Postby Frayed Knot » Tue Dec 06, 2011 1:48 pm

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As far as the original poll question, I've tended to be less pessimistic than most on the Reyes injury front so I'm casting a vote for 800+
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Re: Jose Reyes six-year prediction poll

Postby batmagadanleadoff » Tue Dec 06, 2011 4:06 pm

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As far as predicting the impact that the Marlins' new stadium will have on attendance, my baseball friends in the Miami area (ed., small sample size) have always maintained that Miami's rain storms, brief but regular, more than anything else is what's kept fans away from the game. So we'll see if they were right what with Miami's new retractable roof.

As far as games played by Reyes over the next seven years, wouldn't it make a difference if he lands on the DL for 50 or 60 games next season as opposed to, say, six years out?

Re: Jose Reyes six-year prediction poll

Postby Frayed Knot » Tue Dec 06, 2011 5:14 pm

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batmagadanleadoff wrote:As far as predicting the impact that the Marlins' new stadium will have on attendance, my baseball friends in the Miami area (ed., small sample size) have always maintained that Miami's rain storms, brief but regular, more than anything else is what's kept fans away from the game. So we'll see if they were right what with Miami's new retractable roof.


That's the hope anyway. But this spending spree of theirs has the whiff of trying to go from 0 to 60 in 10 seconds and so they better be right about how big a boost they're going to get.



As far as games played by Reyes over the next seven years, wouldn't it make a difference if he lands on the DL for 50 or 60 games next season as opposed to, say, six years out?


It's just a simple question: based on what you know of Reyes's career to date how many games do you expect him to be healthy enough to pay over the next six seasons?
Every great cause begins as a movement, becomes a business, and eventually degenerates into a racket.

Re: Jose Reyes six-year prediction poll

Postby Gwreck » Tue Dec 06, 2011 6:15 pm

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For all the talk about his health, Reyes did average 158.25 games over a 4 year stretch from 2005-2008.
Yes, he will be 29 next June but most players don't start a decline in skills or health that early.

It is plausible -- if not likely -- that Reyes' health would allow him to average 135-145 games a year for the first 4 years of the deal (up to to the season in which he turns 32 mid-year).

I see him getting to 750, +/- 25 games, with "average" luck.

Re: Jose Reyes six-year prediction poll

Postby Benjamin Grimm » Tue Nov 27, 2012 9:17 am

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160 games in 2012 for the Marlins.

Re: Jose Reyes six-year prediction poll

Postby John Cougar Lunchbucket » Tue Nov 27, 2012 9:35 am

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Yabbut

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote:I predict he plays more games for another team or team(s) than he will for the Marlins.
Let me tell you something: I have a big set of balls.

Re: Jose Reyes six-year prediction poll

Postby Frayed Knot » Tue Nov 27, 2012 9:38 am

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Frayed Knot wrote:FAs tend to work best on clubs that are using them for the final pieces in their puzzle and not for teams coming off last place finishes. All this sudden spending - for Reyes + Bell + who knows where it stops - and particularly the timing of the spending could look really bad in a couple of years.


And when I said years I meant months.
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Re: Jose Reyes six-year prediction poll

Postby Nymr83 » Tue Nov 27, 2012 10:30 am

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John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote:Yabbut

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote:I predict he plays more games for another team or team(s) than he will for the Marlins.



Not a lock but looking pretty good!
Well, I've got nothing against the bunt, in its place. But most of the time that place is the bottom of a long-forgotten closet. -Earl Weaver

Re: Jose Reyes six-year prediction poll

Postby Benjamin Grimm » Tue Apr 16, 2013 1:47 pm

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Looks like he'll play fewer than 100 games this year, possibly a lot fewer.

Re: Jose Reyes six-year prediction poll

Postby Benjamin Grimm » Mon Nov 11, 2013 2:19 pm

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2012 with Miami: 160 games.
2013 with Toronto: 93 games.
Total so far: 253 games.

If Jose plays all 162 games for each of the remaining four years of his contract (and this poll) he'll end up with 901.

Re: Jose Reyes six-year prediction poll

Postby Frayed Knot » Mon Nov 11, 2013 2:34 pm

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And since no one guessed 900+, he'll need to average a minimum of 137/yr over the next four seasons for the group who selected 800-899 to be correct.

Between 112 and 137/yr for the next group (700-799)
or
between 87 and 112/yr for the group choosing 600-699 (the most common answer).

And the one person who picked 400-499 needs Jose to average between 37 & 61 games/year over the next four.



I still like the 700-799 pick
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Re: Jose Reyes six-year prediction poll

Postby A Boy Named Seo » Tue Jan 06, 2015 3:41 pm

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Benjamin Grimm wrote:2012 with Miami: 160 games.
2013 with Toronto: 93 games.
Total so far: 253 games.

If Jose plays all 162 games for each of the remaining four years of his contract (and this poll) he'll end up with 901.


143 in 2014, 396 total.

He's averaged 132 games the first three years, on pace for 792. Also, props to JCL for immediately predicting he'd play more games for a team not called the Marlins.
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Re: Jose Reyes six-year prediction poll

Postby Gwreck » Sun Jan 03, 2016 2:43 am

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512 games through the first 4 years.

Re: Jose Reyes six-year prediction poll

Postby Benjamin Grimm » Sun Jan 03, 2016 8:22 am

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So the maximum possible now is 836.

I voted for the 600's range, but it looks like those who voted in the 700's are looking pretty good.

(Oh, and props to Seo and Gwreck for remembering to bump this poll each of the last two offseasons.)

Re: Jose Reyes six-year prediction poll

Postby Gwreck » Thu Oct 06, 2016 12:03 pm

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572 through 5 seasons. (2012-2016)

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