Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

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Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

Postby Edgy MD » Wed Feb 25, 2015 12:58 pm

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Yeah, you're getting into the heart of the order now, baby. I'm Matt Harvey and I've been chomping at the bit for about 17 months. What's going to happen? How do I know? I know everything, but still I'm boggled. BOGGLED! But I'm a lightning rod, baby. Everybody's got an opinion about me. And about Qualcomm.





Opinions, man. Opinions are like UCLs. Everybody except R.A. Dickey has one, but some just won't hold up to the challenges that regular usage places on them. What do you think is going to happen to me in 2015? And hey, how 'bout those Rangers?
I'll be your patron saint of heartbreak.

Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

Postby themetfairy » Wed Feb 25, 2015 1:03 pm

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Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

Postby John Cougar Lunchbucket » Wed Feb 25, 2015 1:06 pm

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Bad news: He's only the 3rd or 4th best starter on the team this year.

Good news: he wins 14 games.

14-5, 3.43, 190 innings, 28 starts, spends a week or so out of commission with an injury scare but it helps him get to the finish line.
Let me tell you something: I have a big set of balls.

Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

Postby Edgy MD » Wed Feb 25, 2015 1:18 pm

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I preferred your prediction from the "Prospect Porn" thread.

My $$ on Big Fat Disappointment, emphasis on "Fat."
I'll be your patron saint of heartbreak.

Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

Postby batmagadanleadoff » Wed Feb 25, 2015 1:20 pm

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Harvey's very high ceiling and comeback attempt from major throwing arm surgery makes for a range of possibilities that is likely broader than that of any other Met. He could be absolutely brilliant again, or suffer a devastating setback. Or anything in between.

Beats the shit out of me. How the fuck would I know?

Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

Postby dgwphotography » Wed Feb 25, 2015 1:31 pm

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I hope people don't expect too much from him, because Harvey and his over-inflated ego still have a long road back to be 100%, if he ever will be that again.

I can see him with 10-12 wins, maybe a 12-10 record.
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Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

Postby dgwphotography » Wed Feb 25, 2015 1:32 pm

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John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote:Bad news: He's only the 3rd or 4th best starter on the team this year.

Good news: he wins 14 games.

14-5, 3.43, 190 innings, 28 starts, spends a week or so out of commission with an injury scare but it helps him get to the finish line.


If he has a 3.43 ERA, he'll be under .500 with this team's offense.
A bad day behind the lens is still better than a good day behind a desk

Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

Postby batmagadanleadoff » Wed Feb 25, 2015 1:46 pm

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dgwphotography wrote:I hope people don't expect too much from him, because Harvey and his over-inflated ego still have a long road back to be 100%, if he ever will be that again.



See, that's where you're dead wrong. Harvey's over-inflated ego never sank below 100%. It'll probably be at 400% as soon as he strikes somebody out in Florida.

Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

Postby cooby classic » Wed Feb 25, 2015 1:49 pm

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He does something embarrassing.

Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

Postby dgwphotography » Wed Feb 25, 2015 1:53 pm

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batmagadanleadoff wrote:
dgwphotography wrote:I hope people don't expect too much from him, because Harvey and his over-inflated ego still have a long road back to be 100%, if he ever will be that again.



See, that's where you're dead wrong. Harvey's over-inflated ego never sank below 100%. It'll probably be at 400% as soon as he strikes somebody out in Florida.


Niiiice!
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Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

Postby Edgy MD » Wed Feb 25, 2015 2:02 pm

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With regard to the offense-burdened losing record:

    > The Mets scored 3.88 runs per game last year.

    > Assumming a typical Harvey start averages seven innings, pitching to a 3.43 ERA, he will yield two innings to the bullpen.

    > Assuming the bullpen pitches at the same level as last season, they will function to a 3.14 ERA.

    > Assuming Harvey gets standard performance from the Mets bullpen, a typical Harvey start will yield 3.38 earned runs to the other side, combining his performance with that of his relievers.

    > Assuming the Mets defense performs at a level comparable to last year's squad, they will yield 0.09 unearned runs for every earned run the team allows.

    > Assuming Harvey gets standard performance from his defense (and his strikeout rate should probably allow us to imagine he gets better, but let's be conservative), his typical start should yield 0.31 unearned runs

    > Assuming all that falls in line, a typical Harvey start should yield 3.69 runs. (We're using full numbers in the adding but I'm only representing to the hundredths.

    > Assuming he gets standard performance from his offense, that will be a lower score than the 3.88 runs they scored last year, suggesting he should have a winning record, given those assumptions and an average amount of luck. A .525 winning percentage.

    > Assuming he gets 28 starts, that amounts to something like a 10-9 record, because mean regression is like that, with nine no-decisions. But still, those numbers are enough to suggest he'll out pitch his offense.

We're assuming a lot — including that standard offensive levels will be the same as last year's, which they likely won't, considering that they've moved in the fences on the right side. (This actually would suggest that his 3.43 ERA would have more value.)

So what do you think will abandon him here? it could be the defense, the bullpen, or his luck? But you definitely pin the blame on the offense. Do you think it will get meaningfully worse?
I'll be your patron saint of heartbreak.

Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

Postby Benjamin Grimm » Wed Feb 25, 2015 2:03 pm

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13-10, 3.40.

I don't think he'll ever be as good as he was in 2013, and that's not just because of the surgery.

Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

Postby Edgy MD » Wed Feb 25, 2015 2:07 pm

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It'll be because of the blackmail.
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Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

Postby Vic Sage » Wed Feb 25, 2015 2:41 pm

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9-7, 3.50 ERA. After 25 inconsistent starts, he blows out his elbow again in Early August and needs another surgery. He comes back in 2016, but is never really the same.
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Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

Postby John Cougar Lunchbucket » Wed Feb 25, 2015 3:13 pm

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Edgy MD wrote:I preferred your prediction from the "Prospect Porn" thread.

My $$ on Big Fat Disappointment, emphasis on "Fat."


I think being 4th best pitcher on staff and a 3.43 ERA would be considered a disappointment. I'm not sure how fat he is these days but you can tell he's one of those guys who's vulnerable to it.
Let me tell you something: I have a big set of balls.

Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

Postby Edgy MD » Wed Feb 25, 2015 3:23 pm

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Sure, I just liked the tone better. Let's get personal.

My prediction for Dillon Gee is that he'll pitch 68 innings out of the bullpen and smell terribly.

My prediction for Daniel Murphy is that he'll have a personal high in errors and his jokes will be awful.
I'll be your patron saint of heartbreak.

Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

Postby dgwphotography » Wed Feb 25, 2015 3:30 pm

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John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I'm not sure how fat he is these days but you can tell he's one of those guys who's vulnerable to it.


From Adam Rubin this morning. It could be camera angle, lens distortion, Harvey's posture, or he went on the Sid Fernandez seasonal diet plan. You decide:

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Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

Postby batmagadanleadoff » Wed Feb 25, 2015 3:33 pm

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John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I'm not sure how fat he is these days but you can tell he's one of those guys who's vulnerable to it.


I was thinking the exact same thing when I saw the picture in the first post to this thread. I'd bet that if Harvey suddenly went sedentary for eight or so months, he'd put on 50 pounds, easily.


Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

Postby dgwphotography » Wed Feb 25, 2015 3:35 pm

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Edgy MD wrote:


Every time I see this picture, I'm struck by how much Harvey looks like Greg Brady right after Don Drysdale filled his head with visions of the majors...
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Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

Postby MFS62 » Wed Feb 25, 2015 11:27 pm

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16-12 2.89

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Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

Postby smg58 » Thu Feb 26, 2015 8:58 am

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16-10, 2.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 210 K in 200 IP. I'm bullish.

Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

Postby John Cougar Lunchbucket » Thu Feb 26, 2015 9:36 am

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dgwphotography wrote:
Edgy MD wrote:


Every time I see this picture, I'm struck by how much Harvey looks like Greg Brady right after Don Drysdale filled his head with visions of the majors...


Greg was a complete douche in that episode but Drysdale was also quite stupid. As Robert Reed would ask, "Who wrote this shit?"
Let me tell you something: I have a big set of balls.

Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

Postby Edgy MD » Thu Feb 26, 2015 10:15 am

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Still, that's one of the last Harvey photos I've seen where he doesn't look fat, abrasive, chaw-filled, and/or haughty.

Where he doesn't look like he's got his mook on.
I'll be your patron saint of heartbreak.

Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

Postby Edgy MD » Thu Feb 26, 2015 10:18 am

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It's a rare episode where Greg gets a VIP visit. Big shot guest stars were usually more concerned with Bobby's or Marcia's maturation/development/emotional health.

Still, in this shot, Drysdale seems honestly concerned with Greg's form.
I'll be your patron saint of heartbreak.

Re: Forecasts for Fifteen: Matt Harvey

Postby metsmarathon » Thu Feb 26, 2015 10:42 am

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13-7 2.95 ERA in 180 innings, with 185 k's, better late in the season than early.
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