Democratic Nomination 2020

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Re: Democratic Nomination 2020

Postby Ceetar » Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:34 pm

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It's almost more complicated than just 'underestimated bigotry' in a two party system particularly.

18-29 white women did not, in fact, prefer Trump.

And over all it was just 31.3 million white women who voted Trump, which is less than 10% of the population. And is something like 28% of white women by population. If you pick a random white woman, she probably DIDN'T vote for Trump, even more so if she's under say 45 or so.
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Re: Democratic Nomination 2020

Postby Frayed Knot » Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:00 am

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Centerfield wrote:Understood. But the number was offered to demonstrate that it's too simplistic to suggest this was about likeability. Race/gender/ethnicity are huge factors.



I'm missing the part where white women not voting for a white woman is somehow proof that race/gender/ethnicity are huge factors.
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Re: Democratic Nomination 2020

Postby Centerfield » Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:19 am

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Frayed Knot wrote:
Centerfield wrote:Understood. But the number was offered to demonstrate that it's too simplistic to suggest this was about likeability. Race/gender/ethnicity are huge factors.



I'm missing the part where white women not voting for a white woman is somehow proof that race/gender/ethnicity are huge factors.


You should have kept reading.

Centerfield wrote:Roy Moore, a sexual predator, ran on a platform of bigotry and prejudice, and carried the white woman vote 68% in his state.

Donald Trump, a sexual predator, ran on a platform of bigotry and prejudice and carried the white woman vote 53% nationwide.


In 2016, the majority of white women nationwide voted for Donald Trump, a person who bragged about sexual assault, peeped on teenage beauty pageant contestants, and openly talked in a derogatory manner about women. As far as I know, these are things that women generally do not like.

Why did they vote for him then? Because Hillary was oh so unlikeable? Maybe. But maybe it had something to do with his platform. His open embrace of bigotry and prejudice.

But I get it. Hillary's voice is shrill.

In 2017, a super majority of white women in Alabama voted for Roy Moore. There was a mountain of evidence that he was a predator of under age women. Pedophilia is also something frowned upon by women. So again, why did they vote for Moore? Was Doug Jones also unlikeable? Did he also have a shrill voice and not smile enough?

Maybe. Or maybe, the super majority of white women embraced the platform of bigotry and prejudice. And they would have voted for anyone, any criminal, so long as they were racist, homophobic and wanted to ban abortions.

Why would millions of poor people vote against their financial interest? Why would millions of poor people vote for a party actively trying to take away their health care? Because those people are fed lies that justify their feelings of hate, prejudice, insecurity that is brewing inside them, and these con artists tell them that it is ok to feel that way.

Racism, islamophobia, homophobia, abortions, misogyny, this is what is going on in this country. Anyone who doesn't see that isn't paying attention. There is no other explanation why Donald Trump would obliterate the other Republican nominees, and there is no other reason he is now the President. Every Republican wants to give tax breaks to the rich. The reason Trump won is because he's a racist, islamophobic, homophobic, pro-life misogynist who wants to give tax breaks to the rich.

It's unfortunate that this has to be spelled out like this on a message board. One would hope that everyone could pick this up just by looking around at what is going on. But like the part of my post you ignored, I think a lot of people don't see what they don't want to see.

"Hillary was just unlikeable." It boggles my mind that anyone can believe this. But this is the essence of white privilege. "Oh whatever, it's not nearly as bad as those minorities make it seem. Everything's fine!"

In 2016, there were people who voted for Trump because they LOVE him. They would have chosen him over Mother Theresa. Millions of Americans love him because of his bigotry. We're not going to get those votes. These are the people we have to defeat.

And then there were the voters who voted for Trump despite his bigotry. Because they really felt like he might save their jobs, or represent a change from the same old Washington. These are the votes we have to get back. And because we know the world isn't gumdrops and unicorns, we know race is a factor.

So as we look ahead to 2020, we have no choice but to consider the very real idea that maybe running a black woman doesn't represent our best chance of success. It sucks, but that appears to be our reality.

Re: Democratic Nomination 2020

Postby Ceetar » Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:28 am

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Centerfield wrote:
So as we look ahead to 2020, we have no choice but to consider the very real idea that maybe running a black woman doesn't represent our best chance of success. It sucks, but that appears to be our reality.


meh. Wouldn't the 'Trump base' be the same ones that are motivated to go out and vote against a black woman? The trick, as it always is, is to not motivate the rest of the party, because vocal or not, those out and out racists are a minority. The vast majority of people vote for their own interests, without much thought to others. "they'll figure something out". People WERE motivated to vote against Hillary, or simply to not vote FOR her and stayed home. "I've got a job and the government is a slog and whoever's in there isn't really going to affect me much". Some were convinced by the lies. the lies that there would be more/better jobs, that they're taxed too high and this tax bill that they needed Moore's vote for would do more good for them with no real downside besides rewarding a predator, but they're not young women or at risk of being abused by him, so take the tax break.

Trump being an evil monster will motivate a lot of those types of people to go out and vote for a not-horrible alternative, whereas all the people on the republican side that don't particularly like Trump but were very anti-Hillary will be all 'meh' about caring if some random democrat wins, maybe they even like the idea of Oprah as a non-establishment person.

and of course, illegal gerrymandering will always play a role.
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Re: Democratic Nomination 2020

Postby Chad Ochoseis » Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:23 pm

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Lefty Specialist wrote:

Shouldn't run:
Sanders
Biden
Oprah



What's the issue with Biden? Sure, he's old both in age and perspective, but he's in good health and is wildly popular, at least right now (http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/22/politics/biden-poll-analysis/index.html). He was an effective vice president and has demonstrated a stronger grasp of domestic and international issues than anyone else in the field so far. He's respected by insiders and outsiders, and has shown an ability to connect with a wide range of Democratic constituencies.

The plagiarism issues that came up in the 1988 race have largely been dissected and debunked as dumb oversights. There's been talk about sexual harassment, but for now that talk amounts to nothing more than a bunch of murmuring from the peanut gallery.

I'm not necessarily saying he's the best candidate. I'd like to see more of Tammy Duckworth (I don't think there are "natural-born citizen" issues; she was born a US citizen), and I'd like to hear more of Kirsten Gillibrand's views. But I wouldn't put him in the Sanders/Oprah group of people who need to stay far away from the 2020 race.
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Re: Democratic Nomination 2020

Postby Benjamin Grimm » Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:25 pm

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Oprah could be the next Bernie, in that if she runs for the nomination and doesn't get it, there could be a Susan-Sarandon-style backlash against whoever gets the nomination.

Re: Democratic Nomination 2020

Postby Ashie62 » Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:14 pm

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Islamophobia? I do see extreme Islam as a threat each and every day.

There is a theory that the names we throw out early for 2020 will not appear on a ticket come the next Presidential election.

Too early to speculate although I understand it is fun. As in Romney in 2020.

Minding my own business in Suburbia. Let the eggheads present poo-poo.

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Re: Democratic Nomination 2020

Postby Edgy MD » Wed Jan 10, 2018 6:47 pm

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Ashie62 wrote:Islamophobia? I do see extreme Islam as a threat each and every day.

There are plenty who make no distinction between extreme Islam and Islam.

And there is a terible president who inflates (and capitalizes on) the the work of Muslim killers while dismissing the threat of far more rampant and more lethal work of non-Muslim killers.
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Re: Democratic Nomination 2020

Postby Lefty Specialist » Wed Jan 10, 2018 8:30 pm

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I have redneck-with-anger-issues-and-too-many-guns-ophobia. They're a lot more dangerous.

Biden is too old. He'd be 77 if elected. The Democratic party needs a younger standard-bearer. I love the man, but no.
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Re: Democratic Nomination 2020

Postby Frayed Knot » Wed Jan 10, 2018 9:31 pm

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Yeah, 77 is the oldest age of anyone ever leaving the presidency. Not exactly what you'd want entering it.
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Re: Democratic Nomination 2020

Postby batmagadanleadoff » Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:11 am

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Centerfield wrote:
Frayed Knot wrote:
Centerfield wrote:Understood. But the number was offered to demonstrate that it's too simplistic to suggest this was about likeability. Race/gender/ethnicity are huge factors.



I'm missing the part where white women not voting for a white woman is somehow proof that race/gender/ethnicity are huge factors.


You should have kept reading.

Centerfield wrote:Roy Moore, a sexual predator, ran on a platform of bigotry and prejudice, and carried the white woman vote 68% in his state.

Donald Trump, a sexual predator, ran on a platform of bigotry and prejudice and carried the white woman vote 53% nationwide.


In 2016, the majority of white women nationwide voted for Donald Trump, a person who bragged about sexual assault, peeped on teenage beauty pageant contestants, and openly talked in a derogatory manner about women. As far as I know, these are things that women generally do not like.

Why did they vote for him then? Because Hillary was oh so unlikeable? Maybe. But maybe it had something to do with his platform. His open embrace of bigotry and prejudice.

But I get it. Hillary's voice is shrill.

In 2017, a super majority of white women in Alabama voted for Roy Moore. There was a mountain of evidence that he was a predator of under age women. Pedophilia is also something frowned upon by women. So again, why did they vote for Moore? Was Doug Jones also unlikeable? Did he also have a shrill voice and not smile enough?

Maybe. Or maybe, the super majority of white women embraced the platform of bigotry and prejudice. And they would have voted for anyone, any criminal, so long as they were racist, homophobic and wanted to ban abortions.

Why would millions of poor people vote against their financial interest? Why would millions of poor people vote for a party actively trying to take away their health care? Because those people are fed lies that justify their feelings of hate, prejudice, insecurity that is brewing inside them, and these con artists tell them that it is ok to feel that way.

Racism, islamophobia, homophobia, abortions, misogyny, this is what is going on in this country. Anyone who doesn't see that isn't paying attention. There is no other explanation why Donald Trump would obliterate the other Republican nominees, and there is no other reason he is now the President. Every Republican wants to give tax breaks to the rich. The reason Trump won is because he's a racist, islamophobic, homophobic, pro-life misogynist who wants to give tax breaks to the rich.

It's unfortunate that this has to be spelled out like this on a message board. One would hope that everyone could pick this up just by looking around at what is going on. But like the part of my post you ignored, I think a lot of people don't see what they don't want to see.

"Hillary was just unlikeable." It boggles my mind that anyone can believe this. But this is the essence of white privilege. "Oh whatever, it's not nearly as bad as those minorities make it seem. Everything's fine!"

In 2016, there were people who voted for Trump because they LOVE him. They would have chosen him over Mother Theresa. Millions of Americans love him because of his bigotry. We're not going to get those votes. These are the people we have to defeat.

And then there were the voters who voted for Trump despite his bigotry. Because they really felt like he might save their jobs, or represent a change from the same old Washington. These are the votes we have to get back. And because we know the world isn't gumdrops and unicorns, we know race is a factor.

So as we look ahead to 2020, we have no choice but to consider the very real idea that maybe running a black woman doesn't represent our best chance of success. It sucks, but that appears to be our reality.


So then how do you explain Barack Obama's two presidential election victories?

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